OPENING BELL
February 13, 2026 · morning tape
📈 Vibe check: $0.58 — Guarded optimism. The resistance is softer. Nobody wants to be the first to cannonball.
Super Bowl volume cleared a billion dollars on a single prediction platform. A sportsbook stock dropped double digits, and analysts blamed “overhang” from event contracts. And now a Big Four commissioner is publicly weighing partnerships instead of warnings.
That is not noise. That is momentum.
The sports betting gold rush was state-by-state. Prediction markets are federal. This week felt like the first time a major league openly admitted that distinction might matter.
The Ticker Tape
MAIN STORY
⚾ Manfred opens the door while MLB investigates its own
e will “consider being in business with prediction markets.” That is the first public signal from a Big Four commissioner that formal partnerships with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are up for discussion.
The timing carries weight. Two Cleveland Guardians pitchers, Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz, remain on administrative leave as MLB and federal authorities investigate alleged gambling violations, according to The Athletic. The case dates back to at least September 2025 and reportedly involves bets placed through illegal bookmakers.
MLB is investigating player betting tied to underground operators while studying partnerships with federally regulated trading platforms. That is not hypocrisy. It is a power play.
Per The Athletic and Front Office Sports, Manfred’s comments followed a presentation contrasting CFTC-regulated prediction markets with state-regulated sportsbooks. The owners’ takeaway: federal oversight, uniform rules, transparent settlement, institutional surveillance. Kalshi’s Poirot system reportedly conducted more than 200 investigations last year. By contrast, state sportsbooks answer to more than 30 separate regulatory regimes with uneven data sharing.
In plain terms: Markets on baseball outcomes already exist. The league can fight scattered battles across state lines and illegal books, or align with federally regulated platforms where contract design, monitoring, and escalation protocols are centralized.
The Super Bowl accelerated the shift. Kalshi cleared more than $1 billion in trading volume in a single day, a 2,700% increase from last year. Monthly industry volume reached an estimated $13 billion by late 2025. Meanwhile, Major League Soccer and the National Hockey League signed prediction market deals without public integrity fallout. Revenue participation. Structured contracts. No visible blowback.
The enforcement backdrop matters. The Guardians investigation reportedly involves illegal bookmakers and coordination across federal and state authorities, with no clear resolution timeline. That is the fragmented reality MLB faces under the current system. A partnership with a small number of CFTC-regulated platforms would mean mandatory suspicious trading alerts and direct integrity feeds, not multi-agency guesswork.
The Athletic reports MLB emphasized three pillars in its briefing:
Federal oversight with consistent surveillance standards.
Contract design input to avoid markets that create perverse incentives.
Revenue participation if baseball futures drive significant volume.
There is tension. MLB recently warned players not to engage with baseball-related prediction contracts. If the league monetizes those markets institutionally, players will raise fair questions. The Clase and Ortiz case, centered on alleged use of illegal bookmakers, shows MLB enforces a hard line on player conduct even as it evaluates market alignment at the league level.
💡 Why this matters: MLB’s reputation has long been framed as the most cautious league on gambling partnerships. If Manfred is publicly entertaining federal market partnerships during an active gambling investigation, the calculus has shifted. Oh, the irony. Integrity gaps tied to illegal and fragmented betting may push MLB toward federally regulated platforms with centralized surveillance and oversight.
🔗 The Athletic | 📉 DraftKings drops 15%. Prediction markets get named on the call.
DraftKings guided 2026 revenue at $6.5 to $6.9 billion. Wall Street wanted more. Shares fell roughly 15%.
Analysts pointed to prediction platforms as a “continuing overhang.” CEO Jason Robins spoke about DraftKings Predictions as the in-house solution, promising exchange-style upside. Investors were unmoved.
The fear: sportsbooks grow modestly while prediction markets absorb most of the incremental action, especially during tentpole events.
💡 Why This Matters: When earnings calls cite Kalshi and Polymarket as competitive threats, this stops being niche. Capital is rotating.
📰 AP frames it bluntly: prediction markets love sports. Sports are wary.
The Associated Press laid out the standoff. Super Bowl volume topped $1 billion on Kalshi. The NFL and the NBA remain cautious. MLS and the NHL moved first.
Leagues worry about perception and contract design. Markets like “Will Player X get injured?” are a PR nightmare waiting to happen. Platforms argue that federal oversight and transparent settlement reduce risk.
Why This Matters: Sports drive liquidity. Liquidity drives leverage. The longer leagues wait, the less control they have over how these markets evolve.
🔗 AP
🎓 NBC traces the roots. Three economists. One industry explosion.
NBC revisited the academic backbone that made today’s markets possible. What started as theory now processes billions in monthly volume.
Growth has been sharp, especially among younger users who treat these apps like trading platforms. Regulators and treatment advocates are starting to ask where trading ends, and gambling begins.
Why This Matters: Mainstream features signal acceptance. They also invite scrutiny. Expect the youth gambling angle to intensify.
🔗 NBC News
🚨 Polymarket turns the news cycle into a tradable feed
Polymarket launched a Breaking Sports News and Predictions hub. Trades, injuries, coaching changes. All live.
Markets now move with beat reporter tweets. Journalists monitor prices to sniff out leaks. Prices become signals. Signals become stories. Feedback loop engaged.
Why This Matters: When a prediction platform becomes a real-time sports wire, it competes for attention, not just wagers.
SPORTS MARKET MONITOR
🏀 NBA All-Star attendance tracker (Polymarket)
NBA All-Star attendance contracts are live. “Will Player X or Celebrity Y attend?” trades on rest patterns, minor injuries, and trade whispers.
Big Knicks fan Timothee Chalamet is at $0.96. Kai Cenat and Kyle Jenner are both selling at $0.95. So is Tom Brady. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is at $0.93. Value could be had with President Donald Trump at $0.03.6.
This is meta sports as a market. Not who wins. Who shows up.
⛳ AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner (Kalshi)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner contracts are live on Kalshi. Large field. Four rounds. Constant repricing.
Golf rewards patience and information. Weather shifts and leaderboard swings create entry points every day.
🔗 Kalshi
⚾ World Baseball Classic winner (Robinhood)
World Baseball Classic futures are trading on Robinhood. Pool play into knockouts means one upset reshapes the board.
The United States is the big favorite at $0.50, followed by Japan ($0.25) and the Dominican Republic ($0.18)
International baseball plus multi-week liquidity is a stress test for sustained engagement.
START HERE
If prediction markets are new territory, this explainer provides the foundation for everything above: